Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Author:

Monod Mélodie1ORCID,Blenkinsop Alexandra1ORCID,Xi Xiaoyue1,Hebert Daniel2,Bershan Sivan3,Tietze Simon3,Baguelin Marc4ORCID,Bradley Valerie C.5,Chen Yu1ORCID,Coupland Helen4ORCID,Filippi Sarah1ORCID,Ish-Horowicz Jonathan1ORCID,McManus Martin1,Mellan Thomas4ORCID,Gandy Axel1ORCID,Hutchinson Michael5ORCID,Unwin H. Juliette T.4ORCID,van Elsland Sabine L.4ORCID,Vollmer Michaela A. C.4ORCID,Weber Sebastian6,Zhu Harrison1,Bezancon Anne3,Ferguson Neil M.4ORCID,Mishra Swapnil4ORCID,Flaxman Seth1ORCID,Bhatt Samir47ORCID,Ratmann Oliver1ORCID,

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.

2. Foursquare Inc., New York, NY, USA.

3. Emodo, San Francisco, CA, USA.

4. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

5. Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

6. Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.

7. Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Abstract

Age-specific contact How can the resurgent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during 2020 be explained? Are they a result of students going back to school? To address this question, Monod et al. created a contact matrix for infection based on data collected in Europe and China and extended it to the United States. Early in the pandemic, before interventions were widely implemented, contacts concentrated among individuals of similar age were the highest among school-aged children, between children and their parents, and between middle-aged adults and the elderly. However, with the advent of nonpharmaceutical interventions, these contact patterns changed substantially. By mid-August 2020, although schools reopening facilitated transmission, the resurgence in the United States was largely driven by adults 20 to 49 years of age. Thus, working adults who need to support themselves and their families have fueled the resurging epidemics in the United States. Science , this issue p. eabe8372

Funder

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Wellcome

Academy of Medical Sciences

UK Medical Research Council

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Fund

Imperial College Research Computing Service

NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and Community Jameel

EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Modern Statistics and Statistical Machine Learning

Cervest Limited

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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