Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

Author:

Bender Morris A.1,Knutson Thomas R.1,Tuleya Robert E.2,Sirutis Joseph J.1,Vecchi Gabriel A.1,Garner Stephen T.1,Held Isaac M.1

Affiliation:

1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.

2. Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, 4111 Monarch Way, Norfolk, VA 23508, USA.

Abstract

Stormy Weather One of the most active questions about the effects of global warming is whether, and how, it might affect the frequency and the strength of hurricanes. Some studies have suggested that warming will bring fewer, and less energetic, hurricanes, while others have claimed that we can expect more intense storms. Bender et al. (p. 454 ; see the news story by Kerr ) explore the influence of global warming on hurricane dynamics over the Atlantic Ocean with a state-of-the-art hurricane prediction model. The model predicts that the annual total number of hurricanes in the 21st century will be less than now, but also that the number of the most intense storms per year will increase. The largest increase of the most intense hurricane frequency is predicted in the western Atlantic, which suggests that Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Southeast coast of the United States could be at greater risk.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference22 articles.

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