Modulation of Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Modulation of Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Published:2000-03-17 Issue:5460 Volume:287 Page:2002-2004
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Maloney Eric D.¹,Hartmann Dennis L.¹

Affiliation:

1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195–1640, USA.

Abstract

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale episodic modulation of tropical winds and precipitation that travels eastward from Asia to America, with a characteristic repeat time of 30 to 60 days. Here it is shown that when MJO wind anomalies in the lower troposphere of the eastern Pacific are westerly, Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean hurricane genesis is four times more likely than when the MJO winds are easterly. Accurate predictions of the MJO may lead to improved long-range forecasts of tropical cyclone activity.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference31 articles.

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4. Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale corresponds to winds greater than 135 knots (155 mph 69 m s −1 ); category 3 corresponds to winds of 96 to 113 knots (111 to 130 mph 49 to 58 m s −1 ).

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