Comment on “Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N”-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Comment on “Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N”

Published:2012-11-02 Issue:6107 Volume:338 Page:604-604
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Vecchi Gabriel A.¹,Msadek Rym¹,Delworth Thomas L.¹,Dixon Keith W.¹,Guilyardi Eric²³,Hawkins Ed³,Karspeck Alicia R.⁴,Mignot Juliette²,Robson Jon³,Rosati Anthony¹,Zhang Rong¹

Affiliation:

1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540–6649, USA.

2. Universite Pierre et Marie Currie/CNRS/IRD/MNHN LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France.

3. National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.

4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.

Abstract

Matei et al . (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the “confident” prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference13 articles.

1. Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N

2. Temporal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N

3. Observed Flow Compensation Associated with the MOC at 26.5°N in the Atlantic

4. Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

5. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate

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