Predicting the Evolution of Human Influenza A

Author:

Bush Robin M.1,Bender Catherine A.2,Subbarao Kanta2,Cox Nancy J.2,Fitch Walter M.1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

2. Influenza Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.

Abstract

Eighteen codons in the HA1 domain of the hemagglutinin genes of human influenza A subtype H3 appear to be under positive selection to change the amino acid they encode. Retrospective tests show that viral lineages undergoing the greatest number of mutations in the positively selected codons were the progenitors of future H3 lineages in 9 of 11 recent influenza seasons. Codons under positive selection were associated with antibody combining site A or B or the sialic acid receptor binding site. However, not all codons in these sites had predictive value. Monitoring new H3 isolates for additional changes in positively selected codons might help identify the most fit extant viral strains that arise during antigenic drift.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference14 articles.

1. Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A

2. Positive selection on the H3 hemagglutinin gene of human influenza virus A

3. The technique for identifying those codons under positive selection excludes amino acid replacements that may have occurred during culture in eggs in the laboratory by ignoring replacements that occur on the branches joining isolate sequences to the tree.

4. Sequences were generated at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by the protocols described in (1). They have been deposited in GenBank (accession nos. to and to ).

5. D. L. Swofford PAUP* (Phylogenetic Analysis Using Parsimony and other methods) version 4.0.0d60.

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