Drought sensitivity in mesic forests heightens their vulnerability to climate change

Author:

Heilmayr Robert12ORCID,Dudney Joan12ORCID,Moore Frances C.3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Environmental Studies Program, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

2. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

3. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.

Abstract

Climate change is shifting the structure and function of global forests, underscoring the critical need to predict which forests are most vulnerable to a hotter and drier future. We analyzed 6.6 million tree rings from 122 species to assess trees’ sensitivity to water and energy availability. We found that trees growing in wetter portions of their range exhibit the greatest drought sensitivity. To test how these patterns of drought sensitivity influence vulnerability to climate change, we predicted tree growth through 2100. Our results suggest that drought adaptations in arid regions will partially buffer trees against climate change. By contrast, trees growing in the wetter, hotter portions of their climatic range may experience unexpectedly large adverse impacts under climate change.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference90 articles.

1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005; https://www.fao.org/3/a0400e/a0400e00.htm [accessed 26 August 2020].

2. Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

3. A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests

4. The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital

5. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

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