Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO 2 emissions scenarios

Author:

Gattuso J.-P.123,Magnan A.3,Billé R.4,Cheung W. W. L.5,Howes E. L.6,Joos F.7,Allemand D.89,Bopp L.10,Cooley S. R.11,Eakin C. M.12,Hoegh-Guldberg O.13,Kelly R. P.14,Pörtner H.-O.6,Rogers A. D.15,Baxter J. M.16,Laffoley D.17,Osborn D.18,Rankovic A.319,Rochette J.3,Sumaila U. R.20,Treyer S.3,Turley C.20

Affiliation:

1. Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, CNRS–Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France.

2. Sorbonne Universités, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Univ Paris 06, Observatoire Océanologique, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France.

3. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.

4. Secretariat of the Pacific Community, B.P. D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia.

5. Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.

6. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.

7. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.

8. Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco.

9. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS–Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives–Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France.

10. Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036, USA.

11. Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA.

12. Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia.

13. School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.

14. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.

15. Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Scotland.

16. IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland.

17. Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, 4a Quai Antoine 1er, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco.

18. Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.

19. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.

20. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.

Abstract

Carbon emissions and their ocean impacts Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions directly affect atmospheric chemistry but also have a strong influence on the oceans. Gattuso et al. review how the physics, chemistry, and ecology of the oceans might be affected based on two CO 2 emission trajectories: one business as usual and one with aggressive reductions. Ocean warming, acidification, sea-level rise, and the expansion of oxygen minimum zones will continue to have distinct impacts on marine communities and ecosystems. The path that humanity takes regarding CO 2 emissions will largely determine the severity of these phenomena. Science , this issue 10.1126/science.aac4722

Funder

European Union Framework Programme 7

Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada

Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council

French National Research Agency

Swiss National Science Foundation

Nippon Foundation

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference219 articles.

1. O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al . “The ocean ” in Climate Change 2014: Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C. B. Field et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 2014) pp. 1655–1731.

2. H.-O. Pörtner et al . “Ocean systems ” in Climate Change 2014: Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C. B. Field et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 2014) pp. 411–484.

3. P. P. Wong et al . “Coastal systems and low-lying areas ” in Climate Change 2014: Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C. B. Field et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 2014) pp. 361–409.

4. How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?

5. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2014 (FAO Rome 2014).

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