Predicting Elections: Child's Play!

Author:

Antonakis John1,Dalgas Olaf1

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.

Abstract

In two experiments, children and adults rated pairs of faces from election races. Na�ve adults judged a pair on competence; after playing a game, children chose who they would prefer to be captain of their boat. Children's (as well as adults') preferences accurately predicted actual election outcomes.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference12 articles.

1. The Republic 1901

2. The validity and utility of selection methods in personnel psychology: Practical and theoretical implications of 85 years of research findings.

3. D. K. Simonton, in Advances in Psychological Research, S. P. Shohov, Ed. (Nova Science, Hauppauge, NY, 2002), vol. 14, pp. 143–153. Note, in Simonton's analysis, the standardized partial beta for relation between intelligence and presidential greatness is 0.29 (the zero-order correlation was 0.55); removing an endogenous predictor (i.e., the number of years in office) increases the beta of intelligence to 0.41.

4. If politicians were selected on ability the correlation between ability and performance would be zero or very weak (given the range restriction in ability).

5. Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes

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