Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

Author:

Pereira Henrique M.1,Leadley Paul W.2,Proença Vânia1,Alkemade Rob3,Scharlemann Jörn P. W.4,Fernandez-Manjarrés Juan F.2,Araújo Miguel B.56,Balvanera Patricia7,Biggs Reinette8,Cheung William W. L.9,Chini Louise10,Cooper H. David11,Gilman Eric L.12,Guénette Sylvie13,Hurtt George C.1014,Huntington Henry P.15,Mace Georgina M.16,Oberdorff Thierry17,Revenga Carmen18,Rodrigues Patrícia1,Scholes Robert J.19,Sumaila Ussif Rashid13,Walpole Matt4

Affiliation:

1. Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.

2. Laboratoire Écologie, Systématique et Évolution, UMR 8079 CNRS, Université Paris-Sud 11, F-91405 Orsay, France.

3. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Post Office Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.

4. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.

5. Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, calle Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 28006 Madrid, Spain.

6. Cátedra Rui Nabeiro–Biodiversidade, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, 7000 Évora, Portugal.

7. Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apartado Postal 27-3, Sta. Maria de Guido, C.P. 58090, Morelia, Michoacán, México.

8. Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden 10691.

9. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.

10. Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.

11. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, World Trade Center, 413 St. Jacques Street, Suite 800, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H2Y IN9.

12. College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Hawaii Pacific University, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.

13. Fisheries Centre, Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory (AERL), 2202 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4.

14. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD 20740, USA.

15. The Pew Environment Group, 23834 The Clearing Drive, Eagle River, AK 99577, USA.

16. Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK.

17. Laboratoire de Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques, UMR IRD 207 Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, 43 rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris, France.

18. The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22203, USA.

19. CSIR Natural Resources and Environment, Post Office Box 395, Pretoria 0001, South Africa.

Abstract

Assessing Biodiversity Declines Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference63 articles.

1. J. Alcamo D. van Vuuren C. Ringer in Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios S. R. Carpenter L. P. Prabhu E. M. Bennet M. B. Zurek Eds. (Island Press Washington DC 2005) pp. 147–172.

2. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

3. Quantifying the evidence for biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning and services

4. Biodiversity Loss Threatens Human Well-Being

5. Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines

Cited by 1538 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3