Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000

Abstract

Getting Wetter Faster Theoretical projections, based on the relationship between temperature and the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold, suggest that global warming should intensify the strength of the atmospheric water cycle by about twice the rate as the thermodynamics and climate models predict. Durack et al. (p. 455) examined 50 years of observations of sea surface salinities and conclude that the patterns of change in the salinity data are consistent with the theoretical projections, rather than with those of the models. Thus, the global water cycle should intensify by 16 to 24% for a future increase of a global average temperature of 2 to 3°C.