Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

Abstract

Better relaxing lockdown together Even during a pandemic, all countries—even islands—are dependent in one way or another on their neighbors. Without coordinated relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) among the most closely connected countries, it is difficult to envisage maintaining control of infectious viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Ruktanonchai et al. used mobility data from smartphones to estimate movements between administrative units across Europe before and after the implementation of NPIs for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Modeling disease dynamics under alternative scenarios of countries releasing NPIs, in particular stay-at-home orders, showed that if countries do not coordinate their NPIs when they relax lockdown, resurgence of disease occurs sooner. Coordination of on-off NPIs would significantly increase their effectiveness at reducing transmission across Europe. Science , this issue p. 1465