Inspecting Gradual and Abrupt Changes in Emotion Dynamics With the Time-Varying Change Point Autoregressive Model

Abstract

Abstract. Recent studies have shown that emotion dynamics such as inertia (i.e., autocorrelation) can change over time. Importantly, current methods can only detect either gradual or abrupt changes in inertia. This means that researchers have to choose a priori whether they expect the change in inertia to be gradual or abrupt. This will leave researchers in the dark regarding when and how the change in inertia occurred. Therefore in this article, we use a new model: the time-varying change point autoregressive (TVCP-AR) model. The TVCP-AR model can detect both gradual and abrupt changes in emotion dynamics. More specifically, we show that the inertia of positive affect and negative affect measured in one individual differs qualitatively in how it changes over time. Whereas the inertia of positive affect increased only gradually over time, negative affect changed both in a gradual and abrupt fashion over time. This illustrates the necessity of being able to model both gradual and abrupt changes in order to detect meaningful quantitative and qualitative differences in temporal emotion dynamics.