Family size desires and intentions in the lowest fertility region in Vietnam

Abstract

Background: Vietnam's total fertility rate has been relatively stable around the replacement level since 2005. Meanwhile, fertility in the Southeast of Vietnam has always been far below the replacement level. As reproductive desires and intentions are important determinants of fertility, the article estimates family size desires and intentions in the Southeast and analyse related sociodemographic factors, contributing insights to the low fertility in this region. Methods: Based on data from a survey of people aged 18-45 in the Southeast in 2020, bivariate analysis and multinomial logistic regressions were applied to examine family size desires and intentions in this region.  Results: Most respondents want two (57.3%) or more (33.1%) children, and only 8.4% of them want to have fewer than two children. There are wide gaps within reproductive desires and intentions and the actual fertility. The mean intended family size is nearly 2.1, lower than the mean desired family size but much higher than the total fertility rate in 2020. Young people and unmarried females are more likely to have desires and intentions of fewer than two children. The most frequent reason for no intention of attaining desired family sizes is the fear of not having enough financial resources to raise their children as their expectations. Discussion and Conclusion: The low fertility in the Southeast of Vietnam is not due to a substantial decline in the value of children, but mainly because socioeconomic conditions are not favourable for having two or more children. In the current context in the Southeast, when most people of reproductive age still want and intend to have at least two children, support policies to reduce difficulties and obstacles to having would be much more effective in increasing the fertility rate than later when the desire of fewer than two children become more popular.