Abstract
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
Funder
Department of Health & Social Care
Economic and Social Research Council
Department for International Development, UK Government
National Institute for Health Research
Research Councils UK
Wellcome Trust
Health Data Research UK
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Subject
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,Medicine (miscellaneous)
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