Pathways to a Sustainable Food Future in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Abstract High food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and expected adverse effects of climate change have appropriately focused attention on climate adaptation, but there has been less focus on mitigating SSA’s agricultural emissions. Emissions from the region’s agricultural production processes and recent rates of agricultural expansion are 2–3 tCO2e per capita per year and regionally more than 2 GtCO2e per year. Crop yield growth in recent years has been limited with some exceptions. With projected population of 2.15 billion in 2050 and extrapolating these recent yield trends, we estimate using the GlobAgri framework that agricultural production emissions for SSA will rise from 0.7 GtCO2e in 2010 to 1.3 GtCO2e by 2050. Conversion of 310 million hectares (Mha) of forests and savannas to cropland and 158 Mha to pasture will generate average annual emissions of 3.8 GtCO2e for 2010–2050. The combined ~ 5 GtCO2e per year would seriously undermine global climate goals. But mitigation options valuable to improve food insecurity could also greatly reduce emissions, including partially closing yield gaps, broad use of urea treatment of crop residues, and increasing per capita consumption of animal products from dairy and poultry rather than beef. These findings suggest that agricultural improvements in SSA needed to address food insecurity should also be a priority for climate mitigation.