Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

Published:2023-09-19 Issue: Volume: Page:
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Author:

Trnka Miroslav¹^ORCID,Meitner Jan¹,Balek Jan¹,Feng Song,Arbelaez-Gaviria Juliana¹^ORCID,Fischer Milan¹,Boere Esther²,Havlík Petr³^ORCID,Kersebaum Kurt⁴^ORCID,Nendel Claas⁵^ORCID,Ruiz-Ramos Margarita⁶^ORCID,Semerádová Daniela¹,Semenov Mikhail⁷^ORCID,Poděbradská Markéta¹,Esper Jan⁸^ORCID,Buentgen Ulf⁹^ORCID,Torbenson Max¹⁰^ORCID,Brzezina Jáchym¹¹,Žalud Zdeněk¹,Katul Gabriel¹²,Olesen Jorgen¹³^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences & Mendel University in Brno

2. International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis

3. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

4. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research

5. Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)

6. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid/ ETSI Agrónomos

7. Rothamsted Research

8. Johannes Gutenberg University

9. University of Cambridge

10. Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

11. Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences

12. Duke University

13. Aarhus University

Abstract

Abstract The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS-affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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