Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin of China

Abstract

Abstract This paper discusses the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin; this information will help promote ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Efforts in the Yellow River Basin represent a major national strategy for carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. Using the panel data of 56 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2017, traditional and spatial Markov transition probability matrices were built to thoroughly explore the temporal and spatial evolution process and the typical characteristics of carbon emissions in its prefecture-level cities. These data are ingeniously employed by the generalized divisia index decomposition method (GDIM) to thoroughly analyse the driving mechanisms and forces behind the evolution of carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities. However, the evolution of carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities has reached a point of stability that maintains the original state, making it difficult to achieve significant improvements in the short term. The results indicate that overall, the carbon emissions of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin are increasing. In these cities, neighbourhood types have a considerable impact on the transmission of carbon emission types. Low-emission areas can encourage a reduction in carbon emissions, whereas high-emission areas can encourage an increase. There is a club convergence phenomenon of "high-high convergence, low-low convergence, high-pulling low, low-inhibiting high" in the geographical structure of carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities. The amount of energy consumed, technological advancement, per capita carbon emissions, and output carbon intensity increase carbon emissions, whereas energy consumption carbon intensity, energy intensity, and carbon technology intensity decrease carbon emissions. As a result, prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin should actively engage these reduction-oriented factors rather than strengthening the role of increase-oriented ones. The Yellow River Basin's key pathways for lowering carbon emissions include boosting research and development, promoting and applying carbon emission reduction technologies, decreasing energy intensity, maximizing energy structure, and increasing energy consumption efficiency.