Do remittances increase tax revenues in developing countries? Evidence from the threshold regression models

Abstract

Abstract This paper provides original econometric evidence on the effect of remittances on tax revenue in developing countries. In applying the system generalized methods of moments (SGMM) and the panel threshold regression method to a sample of 83 developing countries over the period 1990–2019, we find two major results. First, remittances positively and significantly affect tax revenue in developing countries. Second, as far as the nonlinear relationship is concerned, we find two extreme regimes with a smooth shift characterizing the remittances-tax revenue nexus, with respect to conditional variables; remittance effects are positive and significant under the first regime and negative and significant under the second. Furthermore, our findings show that the nonlinear relationship between remittances and tax revenue depends on the levels of informal economy, law and order, corruption and trade openness.