Climate change diverts atmospheric rivers toward densely populated Asia

Abstract

Abstract The recent and unprecedented flood events in the populated regions of Asia have raised concerns about how atmospheric rivers (ARs), an important agent of extreme precipitation over the region, will change under global warming. An ensemble of high-resolution general circulation models projects that ARs and their associated precipitation penetrate Asia further in the next three decades. ARs are thermodynamically enhanced at mid-latitudes and dynamically inhibited at low latitudes, which induce more frequent ARs and their associated extreme precipitation across the subtropics and midlatitudes of South Asia and East Asia. In these regions, the population exposure to AR-associated extreme precipitation is projected to increase significantly and be amplified by the increased population density, particularly in the urban areas of northern China, northern India and Bangladesh (by 24–59%). Hence, promoting preparedness for adapting to changes in AR-related hydrological environments is crucial for these regions in the next few decades.