Modeling policy pathways to maximize renewable energy growth and investment in Democratic Republic of the Congo using OSeMOSYS

Abstract

Abstract Keeping global warming from evolving into irreversible climate disaster requires immediate and sustained decarbonization of global energy systems. Of urgent priority are the energy systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where billions of people are projected to gain energy access in the next several decades. Therefore, leapfrogging traditional fossil fuel-based electricity production in favor of renewable energy technologies is a critical issue area for sustainability. Political and economic challenges in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) mean $44B in external investment is required to achieve its 2030 emissions reduction targets. Additionally, renewable energy technologies (RETs) are often more expensive. This study sought to generate, evaluate, and recommend possible national policies for the DRC government to implement to most effectively boost growth and investment in RETs through 2065. Market-based instruments were identified as the policy type most practical for DRC. Modeling the resulting energy systems for policy pathways involving a 16% RET subsidy, a 70% fossil fuel tax, and both in combination relative to no-policy baseline scenarios, the scenarios including the tax had the lowest net costs ($304-306B) and the highest proportion of RETs (above 90%). Additionally, despite current reliance on hydropower to fulfill 98% of its energy needs, hydropower plays a very minor role in all modeled scenarios (no future investment beyond residual capacity). Finally, a post-modeling market potential assessment was performed on the technology that dominated off-grid supply across policy pathways: the 0.3 kW small solar home system (SHS). Based on learning rates for solar PV, demand for the small SHS system in DRC (>160 million units in total) was found to be sufficient to substantially reduce the unit cost as deployment scales. Putting results into context, emissions reductions for the policy pathways were higher than a past study focused on distributed RETs in DRC, and system costs were 15% higher than estimated in other analysis. These results provide a novel contribution to the literature by demonstrating how financial incentive policies can influence RET uptake in DRC specifically. Ultimately, this study yielded four policy recommendations for the DRC government: 1. Pursue financial incentives to catalyze DRC’s renewable energy supply 2. Tax fossil fuel energy production 3. Re-evaluate focus on hydropower 4. Promote DRC as a healthy market for solar home systems