Abstract
Tuna, an invaluable source of animal protein for humanity, faces significant challenges due to climate-induced disturbances in its oceanic habitat. The resultant alterations in spatial distribution and abundance of tuna have perturbed the balance between supply and demand for tuna seafood on a global scale. Understanding the intricate interplay of potential positive and negative effects of climate change on tuna abundance is crucial for prudently ensuring sustainable resource utilization. Based on global longline and purse seine tuna fisheries datasets (albacore tuna, bigeye tuna, skipjack tuna, and yellowfin tuna), we used extreme gradient boosting to construct species distribution models to investigate the effects of abiotic and biotic environmental variabilities on the distribution and abundance for the four tunas during 1995–2019 worldwide and then predict the expected changes end-of‐the‐century under five shared socio-economic pathway (SSP119, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) emission scenarios. The model identify that the physical factors have more influence than biological factors, and similarly, the environmental variable from deep layer have more influence than those from surface on the tuna spatiotemporal distribution in the perspective of ocean-wide scale. The anticipated findings indicate that key areas of tuna abundance are poised to undergo shifts ranging from 1 to 8 degrees in diverse directions. Aggregate abundance is expected to fluctuate exceeding 60%, either decreasing or increasing relative to the levels observed in the year 2000S. These changes are contingent upon the specific tuna species and the oceanic context. In the context of medium-high intensity emission scenarios (specifically SSP379 and SSP585), the complexities of these situations are heightened. The continual manifestations of climate change underscore the imperative to proactively administer tuna resources, with a focus on open ocean ecosystem dynamics and global seafood security.