Spatial Spillover Effects of Agricultural Agglomeration on Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in the Yangtze River Basin of China

Abstract

Abstract Studying the impact of agricultural agglomeration (AGG) on agricultural non-point source pollution (NPS) is important for reconciling the resource environment and agricultural economic growth.The paper is based on the panel data of 89 prefecture-level cities in the main agricultural production areas of the Yangtze River basin from 2000 to 2020, measuring the level of AGG and NPS emissions in each area and employing spatial analysis techniques and spatial econometric models to empirically investigate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and spatial spillover effects of AGG and NPS.The results show that there are differences in temporal changes, spatial distribution, spatial association and spatial evolutionary trends between AGG and agricultural surface pollution, and the changes in the upper, middle and lower basin show non-equilibrium characteristics;NPS has a positive spatial spillover effect, and AGG has a positive direct impact effect and a negative spatial spillover effect on NPS, and there are a differences in the direct impact effect and spatial spillover effect between upper, middle and lower basin;Agricultural production conditions and the share of livestock and poultry industry have a positive direct effect and a negative spatial spillover effect on NPS, while agricultural population size has a positive direct effect and spatial spillover effect;The urbanization rate exacerbates the emission of NPS, while the industrial structure reduces the emission of NPS, but neither has a spatial spillover effect.The fndings of this paper cannot only provide a theoretical basis and practice reference for NPS and AGG evaluation but also beneft more focused policy-making of the Green and sustainable development of agriculture in Yangtze River Basin.