The illusion of competence reflected in grade predictions and utility of learning strategies

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this study is to test the illusion of competence by analyzing the effects of students’ expected examination scores and the utility of the learning strategies that students use on their actual exam scores. Expected and actual midterm and final exam scores for 105 students in a course for secondary preservice teachers showed negative correlations that confirmed the bidirectional nature of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which is the phenomenon in which people’s estimates of their performance on tasks tend to be inversely proportional to their actual performance, i.e., people who estimate that their performance will be the best perform worse, and vice versa. Students’ knowledge of their actual midterm exam scores had a significant influence on their expected final exam results, in that they made more objective and reliable judgments of their competence for their final exam scores. The utility of the learning strategies that the students used correlated positively with expected scores, but negatively with actual scores. Both the effect of expected score and the effect of learning strategy on actual score were negative, but learning strategy utility had a greater impact than did expected score. The findings of this study confirm previous study results of an illusion of student competence between individuals’ expected and actual task performance, and add that studying using learning strategies of low utility has negative impacts on actual performance.