Harnessing AI for Economic Forecasting: Navigating Rentier Economies Towards Diversification and Sustainable Growth - A Case Study of Iraq

Abstract

Abstract Venturing into the crossroads of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and economic development, this study employs AI models for economic forecasting within the context of Iraq, a quintessential rentier state. Drawing on the theoretical underpinnings of rentier state theory and diversification strategies, it harnesses OpenAI's advanced language models, ChatGPT and googles AI Bard, to generate an array of potential economic trajectories. The results provide an insightful probe into the impacts of global oil market trends, the socio-economic implications of public dissatisfaction under economic instability, and the potential benefits of economic diversification. The study investigates the unique challenges facing Iraq, a country rich in oil resources but wrestling with economic stagnation and socio-political instability. The AI models are utilized to generate and dissect potential future scenarios for Iraq's economy, elucidating the critical issues related to its heavy dependence on oil, the sustainability of its bloated public sector, and the ramifications of these factors on socio-economic stability. The analysis underlines the urgent need for robust economic diversification and provides strategic policy recommendations to steer Iraq towards a more resilient and sustainable economic future. This study illuminates the pathway towards economic diversification in Iraq by seamlessly integrating AI models with traditional research methodologies. It demonstrates the potential of AI as an essential tool in economic forecasting and policy planning within economic development studies.