Abstract
Abstract
Planning agricultural practises relies entirely on the timely prediction of rainfall based on data analysis. Early forecasting aids in the preparation of disaster management plans in high-risk locations in the event of predicted severe or limited rainfall. In this study, we analyzed the trends of precipitation and climatic variability for of Jammu region from 1925-2020. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the significance of trends in precipitation data on monthly seasonal and annual scales, whereas the non-parametric Sens’s estimator of the slope was used to quantify the magnitude of climatic trends. The results revealed that the Jammu region shows a statistically significant positive (p <0.005) for annual mean precipitation. In annual trend magnitude, the Jammu region showed a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.5260079 mm a-1 for the observed 95 years' climatic time series. The seasonal trends of precipitation statistics exhibit statistically significant positive trends over the observed time series in the case of the summer season only. Further, a significant precipitation increase of 1.484841 mm-1 was observed for the summer season only. The results of Pettit’s test for detecting annual change points for precipitation show a statistically significant change in the years 1988, 1951, and 1985 and seasonally in the year 1993 for the summer season only. Further, the results of the Mann–Kendall test for detecting monthly trends in the precipitation variables for the 95 years of observed climatic time series exhibit a statistically significant increasing trend for the months of May, June, August, and November. The results of this study are extremely useful in many sectors including agriculture, water resources, and most notably climatology studies in most striking aspects of developmental planning in recent times.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC