Assessment and monitoring of the Dead Sea surface area and water level using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Abstract

Situated at Earth's lowest continental point, the Dead Sea experiences a worrying decline in water levels. The primary drivers include the diversion of water from the Jordan River and its tributaries, as well as mineral extraction activities on both sides of the lake. The aim of this study is to analyze the thematic map of 1971 and satellite images of 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2022 of the Dead Sea to determine the surface area and water level of the Dead Sea and its declining rate. CA-Markov model were employed to generate projected surface area of Dead Sea for periods 2034 and 2050. Time series of observed and future using RPC’s 4.5 and 8.5 of climate data especially temperature were analysis has been implemented to track the climate behavior. Statistical analyses of Kendall correlation matrix were performed on observed and predicted of surface area, water level and temperature. The study shows that the Dead Sea has shrunk by 41.8% during the period from 1971 to 2022, while the water sea level is expected to decrease 12.63 m and 33 m for period 2034 and 2050 respectively. In addition, there were a significant inverse relationship between surface area, water level and temperature with correlation (r=-0.79; p = 0.001) and (r=-0.82; p = 0.001), respectively. It is worth highlighting that from 2022 to 2050, the mean annual temperature is expected to rise by at least 1 ˚C. The long-term strategic vision for stabilizing Dead Sea water levels envisions a two-fold approach: (1) augmenting natural inflow through the introduction of 300–400 million MCM from manufactured sources channeled into the Jordan River, and (2) implementing a reduction in water extraction by Dead Sea industries up to a maximum of 330 million MCM.