Burdens of gastric cancer attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019 with projections to 2040: Findings from the global burden of disease study

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis and predict the global and regional disease burden of gastric cancer (GC) caused by high sodium intake. Methods We used the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 to analyze the GC burden attributable to high sodium intake by sex, age, countries, regions, and Socio-demographic index (SDI). To quantify the secular trends of ASMR and ASDR from 1990 to 2019, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). And the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden over the next 31 years. Results Globally, the ASMR and ASDR attributable to high sodium intake have both decreased, with EAPC of -1.83 (95% CI: -2.02, -1.65 ) and − 2.09 (95% CI: -2.29, -1.90 ), respectively. Across all sexes and age groups, this burden of disease is highest among males and the elderly population. Between 1990 and 2019, the highest global burden due to GC was observed in middle and high-middle SDI regions, especially in East Asia. According to predictions from the BAPC model, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of GC caused by high sodium intake has been decreasing from 2020 to 2040. Conclusions The burden of GC attributable to high sodium intake is decreasing, but the situation is not optimistic in some countries and regions. Specific health policies and interventions are necessary in the future.