A procedure to simulate spread of post-earthquake fire in urban area considering seismic damage to buildings

Abstract

Abstract After a major earthquake, there is often high risk of fires, which can exacerbate the threat to people and property. To investigate the fire spread characteristics in the aftermath of earthquakes, an integrated simulation approach is introduced in this study. A simulation procedure, which combines elastoplastic time history analysis with the cellular automata (CA) model, is designed to sequentially model the earthquake-induced damage to groups of buildings and the ensuing fires. The earthquake damage level of each building is determined through elastoplastic time history analysis using an earthquake disaster simulator (Yousimulator). Following earthquake damage evaluation, an optimized version of the CA model is employed to simulate fire spread. To validate the simulation procedure, the 1995 Kobe earthquake-related fires in Japan were simulated, and the results were compared with the actual fire conditions. The results showed that the overall spread pattern and reach of the simulated fires are similar to those of the actual fires. Moreover, the simulation procedure demonstrated notable efficiency, completing the simulation within only five minutes. This simulation procedure provides a valuable means to assess the post-earthquake fire risk in urban areas. By leveraging this method, decision-makers can effectively evaluate the vulnerability of the urban environment to post-earthquake fires, enabling them to make informed decisions and implement targeted measures to mitigate such risks.