Nonlinear relationships between built environmental characteristics and ridership in Xi'an metrostation

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, Xi'an metro construction has been progressing rapidly, becoming the primary mode of urban green public transportation. Since the ridership of the metro is closely linked to the characteristics of its surrounding built environment, a key problem in promoting the benign development between the two is to explore the spatiotemporal distributional difference in ridership and its influencing factors. In this study, the "5D" characteristics of built environment are described by density, diversity, design, destination and distance variables. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of ridership are analyzed via Arc GIS and Python, while the nonlinear relationships between ridership and built environment of 106 metro stations of downtown Xi'an, as well as relevant threshold effects are revealed via Shapley additive explanations  with gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT-SHAP). The results show that: (1) Xi'an metro travel presents a medium-short spatiotemporal distribution, and the ridership network is characterized by strong center-spillover. (2) The nonlinear relationship between built environment and ridership is ubiquitous and presents a threshold effect. The impact threshold of bus stop density on ridership is 4-6 pcs/km2, the impact threshold of road network density is roughly 4-5 km/km2, and the effective threshold of building density does not exceed 20%. (3) The positive impact of POI facility density on peak ridership is stronger than that at flat hours. Variables like land use mixture, population density and distance from downtown have a time-driven effect on the ridership, whose importance and influence change with time. This study provides a better understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of Xi'an's built environment on metro travel, which is of profound significance for the coordinated development between the city and metro construction.