Dynamics of change of climate conditions and extreme weather events in Serbia

Abstract

Analysis of climate change in Serbia was done using the data available from the Digital Climate Atlas of Serbia. It includes observed climate change and future climate change projections according to scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, until the end of 21st century, compared to the reference period 1961-1990. According to the main climate change indicator, change of average air temperature, climate change is accelerating. Results showed that climate conditions in the mid-century period are known with high reliability, while changes of climate conditions in the second half of the century depend on reductions of global net emissions of greenhouse gases, i.e. on the fulfillment of the Paris agreement. In this paper, the changes in climate hazards are presented. They are of highest significance for risk increase in health and safety and in agriculture. For the mid-century period, an expected increase of average air temperature for Serbia is about 3.1?C. Expected frequency of extreme precipitation is at least once per year. Each year is most likely expected to be a year with drought. Average frequency of days per year, with temperatures above 35?C, for the territory of Serbia, will be in the range of 9-13, compared to one day in the reference period. In the paper the summary of climate change characteristics in Serbia is also given, based on the presented results and results derived from the literature, categorized into groups of climate hazards, which cause: too warm conditions, too wet conditions, too dry conditions and storms.