Labour migration in the European Union: The case of Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

This paper examines migration trends in the European Union since the enlargements of 2004-2007, which brought 100 million citizens of 11 Central and Eastern European countries into the EU. We examine country- and regional-level data on migration trends and show how European integration depleted the labour force in the new member countries. Several of them have lost 10% of their population since 2006, most of it via negative net migration. In 2019, 18% of Romanians, 14% of Lithuanians, 13% of Croats, and 13% of Bulgarians lived in another EU country. The quantitative analysis shows that migration contributed positively to regional convergence, as every percentage point of net migration increased GDP per capita by roughly 0.01% and reduced unemployment by 0.1-0.2 percentage points. To disentangle aggregate migration effects, further analysis will be needed to quantify its impact on regions that lose their population via migration.