Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola nightmare: Empirical formulas and thermodynamic properties (enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy) of nucleocapsid, virus particle and biosynthesis of BA.2.86 Pirola variant of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Similarly to a phoenix, SARS-CoV-2 has appeared periodically in waves. The new variants that appeared through mutations have suppressed earlier variants, causing new waves of the pandemic. The Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola variant is the latest in the sequence. An increased infectivity was noticed, which results in rapid spreading, as well as decreased pathogenicity, which results in a lower number of severe cases. However, in the public there is a fear of further development of the epidemic. This analysis was made with the goal to assess the risks in the period of early 2024. Mutations that were developed by the BA.2.86 variant have led to a change in empirical formula and thermodynamic properties. The empirical formula of the BA.2.86 virus particle is CH1.639023O0.284130N0.230031P0.006440S0.003765. It is different than those of other variants of SARS-CoV-2, other virus species and cellular organisms. The driving force for the virus multiplication, Gibbs energy change of biosynthesis of the BA.2.86 variant is ?221.75 kJ C-mol-1. It is more negative than that of its host tissue. According to the biosynthesis phenomenological equation, the more negative Gibbs energy change of biosynthesis allows the virus to achieve a greater biosynthesis rate and hijack the host cell metabolism. However, the Gibbs energy change of biosynthesis of the BA.2.86 variant is similar to those of the CH.1.1 and XBB.1.16 variants. This means that these variants should have similar multiplication rates and thus similar pathogenicity. Therefore, it seems that there is no ground for fear of an extensive spreading of severe forms, but there are reasons for caution and monitoring of the spreading of the epidemic and potential appearance of new mutations. Moreover, unlike the earlier pandemic waves, during the newest pandemic wave, the infections with influenza, RSV and BA.2.86 variant simultaneously appeared, which deserves an analysis.