Ranking Age-at-Death Distributions Using Dominance: Robust Evaluation of United States Mortality Trends, 2006–2021

Author:

Issa Jawa1ORCID,Van Ourti Tom2ORCID,van Baal Pieter1ORCID,O'Donnell Owen3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, EsCHER, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

2. Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus School of Economics, EsCHER, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

3. Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus School of Health Policy and Management, EsCHER, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

Abstract

Abstract Diverging mortality trends at different ages motivate the monitoring of lifespan inequality alongside life expectancy. Conclusions are ambiguous when life expectancy and lifespan inequality move in the same direction or when inequality measures display inconsistent trends. We propose using nonparametric dominance analysis to obtain a robust ranking of age-at-death distributions. Application to U.S. period life tables for 2006–2021 reveals that, until 2014, more recent years generally dominate earlier years, implying improvement if longer lifespans that are less unequally distributed are considered better. Improvements were more pronounced for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic individuals than for non-Hispanic White individuals. Since 2014, for all subpopulations—particularly Hispanics—earlier years often dominate more recent years, indicating worsening age-at-death distributions if shorter and more unequal lifespans are considered worse. Dramatic deterioration of the distributions in 2020–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic is most evident for Hispanic individuals.

Publisher

Duke University Press

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