Modeling the bioclimatic range of Pterostichus melanarius (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in conditions of global climate change

Abstract

At present, climate change significantly affects living organisms on the planet, leading to transformations in their niches, ranges and abundance. The aim of our work was to forecast the range of the representative of the large family Carabidae, famous for its indicative characters, richness and importance in soil communities. We used 19 bioclimatic variables of Bioclim according to our own data and the data of GBIF with the help of the MaxEnt program. We used 550 coordinates of ground beetle Pterostichus melanarius (Illiger, 1798) records. We distinguished the potential range the species studied and drew prognostic maps of the species’ distribution related to climate change according to four scenarios. Mean annual temperatures and the mean temperature in the warmest and the coldest quarters of the year were the major factors affecting spatial distribution of P. melanarius. Visualization of potential range according to RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios predicted range reduction by 2050 but its recovery by 2070. According to RCP 8.5 scenario, the range of the species studied will be significantly transformed: by 2070 the range will shift towards the north-west in the continental European states but to the northeast – in the coastal states. By 2070 almost all southern territories of Europe will become unsuitable for P. melanarius survival. The most visible changes will be the shift in range to the north in the eastern part of the European plain. The comfort conditions for P. melanarius decrease in mountain regions including the Alps, Carpathians, Caucasus and Urals. By 2070, the cenotic optimum significantly decreases on the Balkan Peninsula. Thus, a sharp reduction in Southern European and Mediterranean populations is predicted.