Long-Term Safety Trends as a Function of Vehicle Ownership in 26 Countries

Author:

Borsos Attila1,Koren Csaba1,Ivan John N.2,Ravishanker Nalini3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Transport Infrastructure and Municipal Engineering, Szechenyi Istvan University, Egyetem ter 1, Gyor 9026, Hungary

2. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Unit 2037

3. Department of Statistics, Unit 4120, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to model the evolution of road safety as a function of motorization level. The authors completed a country-level as well as a time-dependent analysis focusing on countries for which data were available for a long period of time (1965 to 2009). For the statistical analysis, a function describing road safety trends (decline, turning, improvement) was proposed. Two coefficients in the model were estimated for each country and for each year, and their change over time is discussed. The results showed that the shape of the curve changed over time. In some countries, the decrease in the mortality rate became slower over time; however, a greater potential to improve road safety existed in other countries. Possible reasons for the general positive trends in road safety are the continuous improvement in engineering solutions (better infrastructure, safer cars) as well as road users who are better trained and skilled because of education and experience. In addition to the factors mentioned previously, the increased speed by which safety-related information and knowledge are disseminated contributes to the decrease in the differences in safety levels among countries.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Mechanical Engineering,Civil and Structural Engineering

Reference12 articles.

1. Some Statistical Aspects of Road Safety Research

2. Holló, P. Impact Analysis of Road Safety Measures with Special Emphasis on the Methodology of International Comparison. DSc dissertation. Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary, 1999 (in Hungarian).

Cited by 19 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3