Arkansas: Still Swingin' in 2004

Abstract

Arkansas-a state that George W. Bush won by just 50,000 votes in 2000-flirted in 2004 with joining Florida as a southern state with “battle-ground" potential. This status as a prospective swing state was driven, not just by the close 2000 presidential outcome, but also by the continued strength of Democratic candidates in Arkansas in recent election cycles. Mark Pryor, for example, was the sole Democrat to defeat an incumbent U.S. Senator in 2002, prevailing over Tim Hutchinson by eight percentage points. Moreover, Arkansas Republicanism continues to be geographically shackled to the fast growing communities of northwest Arkansas (from which the party gets its sole Arkansas U.S. Congressman) and the suburbs encircling Little Rock; the GOP only occasionally fields candidates, much less wins posts, elsewhere in the state. At a time then when Republicanism elsewhere in the South shows new strength with each election cycle, nearly three in four Arkansas state legislators continue to wear the Democratic label, and an even larger percentage of local officeholders remain in the Democratic fold.