Stock index forecasting using DACLAMNN: A new intelligent highly accurate hybrid ACLSTM/Markov neural network predictor

Abstract

AbstractThe authors present the investigation of a new hybrid predictive model of Duplex Attention‐based Coupled LSTM Markov Averaged Neural Network, known as DACLMANN. The financial field, particularly the stock market, heavily relies on accurate predictive models. DACLMANN comprises four essential components: two LSTM blocks, an Averagiser and a Markov Neural Network block. The first LSTM block is composed of two hidden layers, each containing 50 neurons and a dense layer with 25 neurons. The second LSTM block consists of two hidden layers, each with 100 neurons, and a dense layer with 50 neurons. The Averagiser plays a crucial role by averaging the closing prices and predicted values from the first LSTM block, resulting in a 90% gain. These averaged values are then fed into the second LSTM block for further prediction. Finally, the predictions undergo evaluation using the Markov model, yielding the final prediction. To assess the performance of DACLMANN, it was tested on 22 years of stock prices for the AMZN index. The evaluation metrics used by the authors include an R2 of 0.76, mean absolute error of 6.81216, root mean square error of 8.6040, Precision of 1, Accuracy of 1, Recall of 1 and F1 of 1. Additionally, DACLMANN achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of less than 0.043% and an RMSPE of less than 2.1%. These results not only demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model but also authenticate the prediction outcomes. DACLMANN offers several advantages over traditional predictive models in the stock market. By combining the strengths of Duplex Attention‐based Coupled LSTM, Averagiser, and Markov Neural Network, DACLMANN leverages the power of deep learning, attention mechanisms, and sequential modelling. This hybrid approach enables DACLMANN to capture intricate patterns and dependencies present in stock market data, leading to more accurate and reliable predictions. The robust evaluation metrics further validate the superiority of DACLMANN in predicting stock prices.