Predictable Trade Flows and Returns of Trade-Linked Countries

Author:

Rizova Savina

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Reference47 articles.

1. Table 4.A8. Terms of Trade Adjustment (constant Local Currency Unit)

2. sample countries (whose exports and imports represent at least 20% of their GDP) are sorted on the equally-weighted average (Panel A) or trade-weighted average (Panel B) of the lagged currency returns of their major trading partners. A country's major trading partner is a partner that accounts for at least 5% of a country's total exports or imports. The top 30% of the sorted sample countries are assigned to the Top 30 portfolio, the bottom 30% to the Bot 30 portfolio, and the middle 40% to the Med 40 portfolio. Top-Bot is a zero-cost strategy that buys the currencies of the countries in the Top 30 portfolio and sells short the currencies of the countries in the Bot 30 portfolio. Portfolios are rebalanced monthly. All returns are monthly currency returns;At the beginning of each month from,1981

3. Limited market participation and volatility of asset prices;Franklin Allen;American Economic Review,1994

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