On the Behavior-Based Risk Communication Models in Crisis Management and Social Risks Minimization

Abstract

The article formulates and calibrates a formal model of risk communications in the framework of a risk-based community resilience assessment approach in transforming societies under crises and conflicts. It was demonstrated that perception of risks is not adequate. This situation is recognized as a threat, which leads to a significant increase of losses and to spreading of wrong crisis management practices. To improve decision-making at the personal, group, and population levels, a behavioral-based communication model has been proposed. The modified form of engagement into collective actions for substantially fractionalized society is proposed. A number of models of action calls and a collective decision-making under stress conditions with dynamic communication are put forward. On the basis of the developed model, ways of optimizing communication strategies are aimed at corresponding risk minimization are developed. Future research directions are highlighted.