Mapping of Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Kinnaur District, Himachal Pradesh Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Abstract

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are increasingly threatening the sustainability and infrastructure of high-mountain regions globally. This study specifically addresses the GLOFs risk in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. Using a comprehensive analytical framework, the authors explore factors affecting GLOF initiation, map potential downstream impact zones, and assess societal vulnerability to these climate-induced calamities. For precise analysis, they utilize Landsat images (1989-2018) and Cartosat DEM (30 m) data to map glacial lakes. ArcGIS 10.8 generates geospatial characteristics, while the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) algorithm is employed for land use and land cover (LULC) mapping. Indices like NDSI, NDWI, and NDPI contribute additional insights. Identifying 39 glacial lakes, 10 deemed hazardous due to size (>0.1 km2), the study underscores the specific threat of cross-border GLOFs from China's Upper Satluj River Basin to Eastern Himachal Pradesh. In a prospective deglaciated scenario, it is envisaged that a substantial escalation in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard levels will prevail across the majority of administrative units. Given the increasing encroachment of glacial lakes towards precipitous headwalls, the potential for glacial lake outburst flood initiation is significantly amplified. This elevates the risk to surrounding areas, as the displacement of ice and rock can initiate substantial GLOFs. In light of this prognosis, an essential initial action for adaptation in these circumstances involves strengthening resilience and implementing capacity-building measures designed to reduce the risk of GLOFs.