Short-Term Time Series Prediction for a Logistics Outsourcing Company

Abstract

In this chapter, tools from univariate time series analysis and forecasting are presented and applied. Time series components, such as trend and seasonality are introduced and discussed, while time series methods are analyzed based on the type of the time series components. In the literature, linear methods are the most commonly used. However, real time series data often include nonlinear components, so linear time series forecasting may not be the optimal choice. Therefore, also a basic nonlinear forecasting method is presented. The necessity of these methods to logistics service providers and 3PL companies is presented by case studies that present how the operational and management costs can be cut down in order to ensure a service level. Short term forecasts are useful in all the units of activation of 3PL companies, i.e. supplies, production, distribution, storage, transportation, and service of customers.