Data Perturbation Analysis for IS Project Management Based on a Single Time Estimate

Abstract

The Critical Path Method (CPM) is the most widely used tool for project management; however, it requires three estimates for the duration of each activity as its input. This is too much uncertain input requirement from the managers, making the critical path (CP) unstable causing major difficulties for the manager. A linear programming formulation of the project network is proposed for determining a CP, based on making one estimate for the duration of each activity. Upon finding the CP, data perturbation analysis (DPA) is performed using the constraints of the dual problem. This DPA set of uncertainties provides the manager with a tool to deal with the simultaneous, independent, or dependent changes of the input estimates that will preserve the current CP. The proposed procedure is easy to understand, easy to implement, and provides useful information for the manager. A numerical example illustrates the process.