Estimation of Construction Activity Duration Under Uncertainty Using Discrete Fuzzy Weighted Average Algorithm

Author:

Rezakhani Pejman1ORCID,Korkmaz Kasim A.1

Affiliation:

1. Eastern Michigan University, USA

Abstract

This paper presents a qualitative risk assessment tool based on fuzzy set theory to estimate the amount of activity duration overrun under the combinatory effect of multiple risk factors. Applying proposed methodology, a set of duration modifiers to calculate the optimistic, most-likely and pessimistic duration values under uncertainty are calculated. To elaborate the methodology, a simulated bridge project with ten risk factors affecting activities duration is presented. Proposed model contributes to knowledge that could help minimize the schedule overrun and improve risk mitigation strategies through providing risk-based duration estimates instead of discrete values. Advantages of the developed approach compared to existing models include (1) considering the combinatory effect of multiple risk factors on activity duration, (2) accounting for uncertainty in experts’ evaluations by employing the interval-valued fuzzy numbers, and (3) utilizing a discrete fuzzy weighted average algorithm which avoids creation of incorrect fuzzy membership functions.

Publisher

IGI Global

Subject

General Medicine

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3