An Improved GM(1,1) Model of Marketization of Forest Ecological Compensation based on Health-Cultivation Industry

Abstract

In the context of supply-side structual reform, the marketization of forest ecological compensation is an inevitable requirement under the market economy. The forest health-cultivation industry, which explores the new method to utilize the forestry resources, is a new direction of forestry firms and is the production of supply-side structural reform. From the perspective of forest health-cultivation industry, this essay explores the possibility of the marketization of forest ecological compensation based on forest health-cultivation industry, and predicts the willingness of people to pay for the ecological service by using the original number of tourists in forestry tourism and leisure industry tourism between 2010 and 2015 and adopting the improved GM (1,1) model. The result shows that people’s willingness is increasing. It is predicted that, by 2023, the number of tourists in forestry tourism and leisure industry tourism will reach 8.98 billion. The development of forest health-cultivation industry has introduced the market mechanism for forestry development, which makes up for the deficiency of the existing compensation mechanism characterized by low compensation standards and single channel of funding. The increase of people’s demand for ecological tourism and the boom of forest health-cultivation industry which provide a new opportunity for the marketization and diversification of forest ecological compensation mechanism.