Predicted shifts in suitable habitat of interacting benthic species in a warmer and invaded Canadian Arctic
Author:
Goldsmit Jesica123ORCID, McKindsey Christopher W.1, Schlegel Robert W.4, Deslauriers David5, Howland Kimberly L.2
Affiliation:
1. 1Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont-Joli, Quebec, Canada 2. 2Arctic and Aquatic Research Division, Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada 3. 3Direction de l’expertise sur la faune aquatique, Ministère de l’Environnement, de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, de la Faune et des Parcs, Quebec, Canada 4. 4Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Sorbonne Université, Villefranche-sur-mer, France 5. 5Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski (ISMER), Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada
Abstract
Climate change and related expanding shipping activity are predicted to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species arriving in the Arctic. The goal of this study was to predict the distribution of an interconnected set of native and non-native primary producers and primary and secondary consumers in this changing context. Groups of species were selected to represent a benthic coastal Arctic food web in Hudson Bay, including kelps and eelgrass as primary producers (Alaria esculenta, Agarum clathratum, Saccharina latissima, Laminaria solidungula, and Zostera marina), amphipods as primary consumers (Gammarus oceanicus and G. setosus), and fish as secondary consumers (sculpins Gymnacanthus tricuspis, Myoxocephalus scorpius, M. scorpioides, and M. quadricornis). Ensemble models were used to predict the distribution of these native and several analogue non-native species (species known to be invasive elsewhere that can be considered analogues to Hudson Bay species): Dumontia contorta, Undaria pinnatifida, Sargassum muticum, and Codium fragile (primary producers); Gammarus tigrinus (primary consumer); and Artediellus atlanticus and A. uncinatus (secondary consumers). Predicted habitat suitability of trophic groups and analogue non-native species were overlaid under current and future climate change scenarios to assess areas of change through time. The predicted direction of potential distribution shifts varies by species identity (species composition) but not trophic group. Overall trophic relationships and roles in the ecosystem are likely to be maintained over time because while some species are predicted to decrease their potential ranges (e.g., M. quadricornis), others in the same trophic groups are predicted to increase (e.g., M. scorpius). Overlap (or lack thereof) between native and analogue non-native species pairs are expected to vary through time enabling novel interactions (e.g., competition) in space and time. This approach will help to identify current and future high-risk areas for trophic level changes and interactions with invasive species in response to global warming.
Publisher
University of California Press
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Geology,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology,Ecology,Environmental Engineering,Oceanography
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