Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Abstract

Abstract After analysing observed summer compound hot and dry (CHD) events over Europe from 1950 to 2022, we employ a large ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations to investigate CHD events under different emission scenarios. By the end of the century, even under a low-emission scenario, model results show a likely increase in the frequency and extension of CHD events over most (60%) of Europe. In particular, the fraction of land projected to be hit once every two years nearly doubles (at least 15%, likely range 6–21) compared to the historical period (8%, 6.5–10), and at least 5,3% (1–7) of land will be hit every year. Under a high-emission scenario, 50% of the Iberian Peninsula is projected to be hit at least twice every three years (20.3 times in 30 years, likely range 17.2–24.2), compared to 1 in ten years in the historical period, whereas 50% of the British Islands, France, and the Mediterranean will be hit more than once every two years. Moreover, 10% of European land will be hit nearly once every 7 years (4.2 times, 3.2–5.6) by CHD events whose intensity equalled or even surpassed the maximum recorded during 1950–2022, and 20% of the Iberian Peninsula once every 5 years. The increase in record-breaking or unprecedented CHD events is mostly related to the increase in record-breaking heatwaves, which is likely over most regions even for the low-emission scenario. In contrast, the increase in record-breaking drought events is limited to southern Europe under the medium- and high-emission scenarios.