Generation of rainfall for Mosul city using statistical downscaling method (SDSM)

Abstract

Abstract This study deals with the application of statistical downscaling method for precipitation. Daily historical rainfall data for Mosul city during the period (1986 - 2014) and the National Centre for the Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re-analysis data are used to calibrate the model. The scatter plot and correlation matrix are used to investigate the degree of association between the selected predictors and predictand. Prior model calibration the fourth root power transform facility is selected for daily precipitation in order to produce none linear regression model. The results obtained from Statistical Downscaling Method (SDSM) model were compared with the observed data. The simulation from Hadly Centre climate model (Had-CM3) emission scenario have been used for future periods. The generation of future climate scenario used 10 years (2026-2035) of daily time scale under HadCM3 predictor data.