Probabilistic statistical model for predicting the effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing

Abstract

Abstract The article studies the effectiveness of single-stage and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technologies using the mathematical statistics method. The studies are based on the geological and physical characteristics of the Shirotny Priob fields which makes it possible to substantiate the methods for choosing the hydraulic fracturing technology. Based on the probabilistic and statistical analysis of field efficiency data, quantitative criteria for the selection of fracture parameters by length, height and amount of injected propane have been established. They can be used to predict the use of multi-stage and single-stage hydraulic fracturing methods. The productive horizon AS12-3 has a complex geological and physical structure and low filtration and storage properties, which complicates its development and contributes to the active formation of hard-to-recover reserves. The one-stage hydraulic fracturing technology is efficient only for 3-4 years. The multistage hydraulic fracturing technology showed is more efficient in comparison with the single-stage one.