Abstract
Abstract
Shelter-in-place and other confinement strategies implemented in the current COVID-19 pandemic have created stratified patterns of contacts between people: close contacts within households and more distant contacts between the households. The epidemic transmission dynamics is significantly modified as a consequence. We introduce a minimal model that incorporates these household effects in the framework of mean-field theory and numerical simulations. We show that the reproduction number R
0 depends on the household size in a surprising way: linearly for relatively small households, and as a square root of size for larger households. We discuss the implications of the findings for the lockdown, test, tracing, and isolation policies.
Subject
Cell Biology,Molecular Biology,Structural Biology,Biophysics
Reference23 articles.
1. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand;Ferguson,2020
2. Report of the WHO-China joint mission on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19);Bruce,2020
3. Characteristics of household transmission of COVID-19;Li;Clin. Infect. Dis.,2020
4. Impact of contact tracing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission;Sun;Lancet Infect. Dis.,2020
5. The mathematics of infectious diseases;Hethcote;SIAM Rev.,2020
Cited by
14 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献