Covid-19 Pandemic Spread as Growth Factor using Forecasting and SIR Models

Abstract

Abstract The novel Coronavirus outbreak began in Wuhan which is located in China in December 2019 and after the outbreak immediately the virus has spread across the globe. Millions of people across the globe are infected and many more have died. World Health Organization (WHO) declared this virus as global emergency. In this work, main goal is to analyse the spread of virus in India that to particularly for Guntur District within India in order to settle the situation quickly. In order to analyse the spread of virus three types of forecasting methods have been compared and the SIR model is used to predict the number of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered persons for the Guntur district which is located in Andhra State.